If your company has gone quieter than usual about headcount plans, or colleagues keep mentioning that AI will reshape how work gets done, you are probably not the only one doing the math. A benchmark released in late October 2026 gives that instinct some hard numbers: 66% of HR leaders at large US employers expect workforce reductions at their organization over the next 12 months, according to LHH's U.S. Severance and Separation Benefits Benchmark Study. That is not a rounding error. In 2024, the same question returned a figure of 36%, meaning the share has nearly doubled in two years.

The study polled 600 HR and business leaders at US organizations with 500 or more employees, and senior leadership is even more cautious than HR: 72% of business leaders and 80% of CEOs in the survey expect layoffs within a year. LHH President John Morgan put the shift bluntly, noting that workforce reductions are no longer limited to periodic rounds tied to budget cycles or downturns, and that as organizations invest in AI and rethink how work gets done, they are still learning what works, what does not, and what that means for their people.

The more important question for you, personally, is not whether cuts are coming somewhere. It is what you would actually walk away with if a cut reached your role. That answer is changing, and not in the direction most people assume.

Severance is still paid at most large employers, but the packages are getting leaner

Severance remains standard practice at large US companies: 92% of organizations pay it, with or without a formal written policy, per LHH. What has shifted is the trajectory. In 2024, 76% of organizations reported making their severance policies more generous; that share has now dropped to 56%. Over the same period, the share of companies that made packages less generous jumped from 9% to 38%.

That gap matters if your mental reference point is a colleague who was laid off in 2024. Two people cut from similar roles at comparable employers, two years apart, can receive noticeably different terms today. The 2024 baseline is already dated.

It also pays to know the legal floor. The Department of Labor (DOL) treats severance as a matter of private agreement between employer and employee under US federal wage law, so there is no federal statute requiring it. The Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) governs minimum wage and overtime but does not set a mandatory severance floor. Where the WARN Act (Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act) applies, it requires 60 days advance written notice before a qualifying mass layoff at employers with 100 or more workers, but notice is not the same as pay. If your offer includes unvested equity or deferred compensation, the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) governs the fiduciary rules around those plan assets, so it is worth understanding what vesting terms say before you sign anything away. Some states, most notably California and New York, layer additional protections on top of the federal baseline, so your state matters too.

Who is now deciding your exit terms, and why it matters

One of the quieter findings in the LHH study is about who controls outplacement, the career-transition support a company funds after a layoff. HR teams lead those decisions at only 30% of organizations now, down from 58% in 2024. CFOs are running that process at 18% of companies (up from 6%), and procurement teams at 13% (up from 2%).

When finance and procurement own the conversation, every dollar spent on separations gets closer scrutiny. For you, that has a practical implication: terms are likely to follow a standardized formula, and a vague request for a better deal is unlikely to move the needle. A specific, reasoned ask tied to concrete factors such as tenure, unvested equity, or a delayed benefits end date has a better chance of being heard.

Timing has also become less predictable. John Morgan of LHH described a pattern where workforce decisions are no longer confined to end-of-fiscal-year planning cycles. Sector exposure is real: tech-sector layoffs in July 2026 were 67% higher than a year earlier, outpacing finance and government, according to figures cited in HR Dive's coverage of the LHH study. If you work in tech, software, or any role directly adjacent to AI automation, the risk calculus is different from the aggregate numbers.

The better news: outplacement support is reaching more workers than before

Cash packages are leaner, but the door to career-transition services has opened wider. Under the FLSA's exempt and nonexempt classification framework, nonexempt employees (typically hourly workers entitled to overtime) now have access to career transition services at 79% of surveyed companies, up from 58% in 2024. For exempt employees (generally salaried workers not eligible for overtime), the figure is 85%, up from 61%.

Depth varies significantly, though. Among companies that offer these services to nonexempt workers, 38% provide comprehensive programs that include one-on-one coaching. Others may offer only an online job portal with limited human support. If outplacement appears in any offer you receive, ask specifically what it covers, whether it includes live coaching, and how many weeks or months of access you get. Those details define the actual value.

Employers are also examining alternatives before moving to involuntary cuts. Ninety-nine percent of those surveyed say their company routinely looks at other options. The most common are retirement incentives (42%), voluntary departure programs (41%), redeployment into other roles (38%), and temporary leave (38%). If your employer announces a voluntary program, compare it carefully against what a standard involuntary package at that company might look like. Given that the involuntary track is getting less generous, voluntary terms may represent better value than they would have two years ago.

What to check while you are still employed

None of this is a prediction about your specific role. It is a signal about the broader environment, and a little preparation now costs almost nothing while potentially making a real difference later. Here is where to focus:

• Your employment agreement and employee handbook. Look for a written severance policy, notice period terms, and what happens to bonuses, commissions, or unvested equity if your employment ends involuntarily. Under ERISA, your plan documents set the governing terms for retirement and equity plan assets.
• Your federal and state legal floor. Federal law does not require severance, but check whether your state sets any minimum. California and New York have state-level protections that sometimes go beyond the federal baseline. Your tenure and role classification under the FLSA (exempt vs. nonexempt) will also affect what formulas employers apply.
• Your WARN Act exposure. If your employer has 100 or more employees, the WARN Act requires 60 days written notice before a qualifying mass layoff. Knowing whether you would be covered is useful context before any announcement arrives.
• Your market value. Know what your role pays in your metro area right now. If you end up job-searching, you will negotiate from current data, not from the memory of your last offer.
• How your employer has handled past layoffs. Verified reviews from former employees often describe how past reductions were communicated, how quickly packages were finalized, and what support people actually received. That track record is public information worth reading.
• Your resume and evidence file. Update both while projects and results are still fresh. Keep a private log of outcomes, numbers, and positive feedback you have received.
• Your financial runway. A rough count of how many months your savings would cover changes how much pressure you feel to sign a package quickly. That pressure is exactly what a well-resourced employer is counting on when terms are presented as take-it-or-leave-it.

How to handle a severance offer if one arrives

If a package lands in front of you, the most useful thing to know is that you almost certainly have time to read it properly before responding. With CFOs and procurement teams now more involved in setting terms, concrete and specific requests tend to land better than general appeals.

• Get everything in writing, including the deadline to respond. Do not sign during the meeting where the offer is presented.
• Ask how the amount was calculated and whether it follows a company-wide formula applied at your level. That question tells you whether there is any flexibility or whether the number is genuinely fixed.
• Read what you are waiving. Most severance agreements ask you to release legal claims against the employer. The Older Workers Benefit Protection Act gives workers 40 and older at least 21 days to review such an agreement and 7 days to revoke after signing. Consider independent legal advice before you sign, particularly if the amount is substantial or if the circumstances of your departure are complicated.
• Negotiate specifics beyond the headline figure: continued health coverage through COBRA or a longer employer-paid period, a later separation date, payout of accrued paid time off, a longer outplacement access window, or an agreed written reference.
• Ask exactly what outplacement covers. One-on-one coaching with a human advisor is a materially different resource from a login to a self-serve job portal, even if both appear as the same line item in the offer letter.

What this signals for your 2027 planning

The LHH benchmark covers large US employers (500-plus employees), so it is not a forecast for your specific company or sector. It is a directional signal: more reductions are anticipated, financial packages are getting tighter, and the people controlling your exit terms are more likely to be in finance than in HR. John Morgan of LHH framed the pressure clearly, noting that in the year ahead, pressure to deliver results will make workforce decisions harder to defer, and that leaders need to build reskilling, redeployment, and career transition into one ongoing strategy rather than treating them as reactive measures.

For you as an employee or candidate, the practical response is not anxiety. It is information. Know what your contract says. Know your legal position under the FLSA, the WARN Act, and your state's specific rules. Know your salary market value from verified benchmarks. And know what former employees say about how your current or prospective employer actually treats people on the way out. Those four data points, gathered while you still have full access to your own employment record, give you a better starting position than most people walk into a layoff meeting with.