Two numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), released on November 3, 2026, tell a story that does not fit neatly into either an optimistic or pessimistic frame. Total quits climbed to 3.365 million, the highest rate since September 2025, while nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs the same month. Workers are leaving with more confidence than they have shown in over a year, yet net hiring has nearly stalled. For people employed in construction or hospitality, that combination creates a narrow but real window to test the market or push for better terms.

The data covers the full US economy, but the leverage is not distributed evenly. Where openings are rising and experienced workers are hard to replace quickly, the bargaining position shifts toward the employee. Where openings are shrinking despite high churn, the advantage is narrower. Below is a breakdown of what the numbers show, sector by sector, followed by concrete steps for employees weighing a move and for HR teams trying to hold their rosters together.

What the September JOLTS numbers show

US job openings rose by 333,000 to 7.523 million at the end of September, according to BLS JOLTS data. That figure beat every estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists and exceeded the 7.100 million forecast in a Reuters poll. The openings rate climbed to 4.5% from 4.3% in August, and the August figure itself was revised upward to 7.190 million from an initially reported 7.079 million.

The turnover side carries more signal for workers and HR teams alike. Quits rose by 321,000 from a revised 3.044 million in August to 3.365 million, pushing the quits rate to 2.1%, the highest since September 2025. Hires increased by 131,000 to 5.402 million, with the hires rate ticking up to 3.4% from 3.3%. Layoffs and discharges fell by 127,000 to 1.641 million, bringing the layoff rate down to 1.0% from 1.1%, the lowest level recorded since March 2025.

Quits function as a confidence gauge across the entire BLS measurement framework: people rarely resign without an expectation of landing something better. When rising quits sit alongside falling layoffs, the labor market is signaling that employers are reluctant to cut headcount while workers are more willing to walk. That is a structurally different dynamic from a hot hiring boom, and it matters for how both sides should respond.

Construction: the clearest seller's market

No sector illustrates the split more sharply than construction. Openings in the industry reached 298,000 in September, up 36,000 from August and 92,000 above the year-earlier level. Hires rose by 49,000 month over month. Layoffs did tick up by 25,000 on the month, but remained 56,000 below where they stood a year before.

Nearly 200,000 construction workers quit their jobs in September. That's the most in any month since the first half of 2023 and a strong indication that the industry's labor supply is once again tightening. - Anirban Basu, chief economist, Associated Builders and Contractors

Basu also described how contractors are adjusting. Unsurprisingly, contractors have responded by holding on to workers they otherwise might part with, he noted, adding that the layoff rate remains lower than in any month on record prior to 2020.

Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) represents more than 23,000 member firms across the US construction industry. When ABC's chief economist flags a tightening labor supply, the warning carries direct operational weight for contractors managing project pipelines in the current rate environment. For a skilled tradesperson, the combination of rising openings, falling layoffs and elevated quits is the profile of an industry where asking for more is a reasonable, data-supported move.

Hospitality: high churn, not a hiring boom

Accommodation and food services recorded 197,000 more quits and 158,000 more hires in September, per BLS figures. However, job openings across the broader leisure and hospitality category fell during the month, as they did in financial activities and in private education and health services.

The pattern points to churn rather than expansion. Workers are circulating between employers, but the pool of new vacancies is not growing. Leverage in this sector is real but narrower than in construction. It is likely to be strongest for experienced staff an employer would struggle to replace on short notice: line cooks with high output, shift supervisors who train new hires, or front-of-house managers who keep service consistent across turnover cycles. For those workers specifically, the data supports a direct conversation about pay or scheduling terms. For entry-level roles in markets where openings are contracting, the window is tighter.

Why the leverage is uneven

The headline figures can overstate the strength of the overall job market. Openings exceeded the number of unemployed people by 414,000 in September, up from a gap of 159,000 in August. By one measure, that works out to 1.06 vacancies per job seeker, compared with 1.02 a month earlier. Both readings are well below the 2022 peak, when there were roughly two openings for every unemployed person.

Hiring momentum is also weak. A Reuters survey of economists projected October payrolls would grow by approximately 65,000, with unemployment holding at 4.2%. Economists have pointed to the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran as one factor making employers hesitant to commit to new permanent hires. Openings growth was geographically concentrated: the West accounted for 244,000 of new openings, the Midwest 90,000, and the Northeast 49,000. By sector, professional and business services led with 106,000 new openings, followed by government at 98,000 and manufacturing at 54,000. State and local government postings rose 108,000, while federal openings slipped by 10,000. Private-sector vacancies rose by 236,000 overall.

One structural caveat worth flagging: the JOLTS response rate has fallen well below pre-pandemic levels, and the September figures are preliminary. Single-month moves can and do get revised. The Department of Labor (DOL) consistently cautions against over-reading any single JOLTS release. Treat these numbers as a directional signal rather than a guarantee. The practical conclusion for job-seekers: leverage depends heavily on sector and geography. A tradesperson in construction in the West holds meaningfully more cards than someone in a hospitality role in a market where openings are shrinking.

For employees: how to use the moment

If you work in construction, hospitality, or another field where employers are actively struggling to fill roles, this is a reasonable time to audit what you earn and what you could earn by moving.

• Benchmark before you open the conversation. Compare your pay with current salaries for your specific role and region. The Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) and BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics both publish sector-level benchmarks that give you a defensible starting point, rather than a hunch.
• Ask beyond the hourly rate. Under the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA), overtime eligibility and guaranteed hours have specific legal definitions that vary by classification. Paid travel time, tool and equipment allowances, employer-sponsored training, and health coverage are often easier for a contractor or restaurant group to adjust than base wages, and they compound over time.
• Use an outside offer honestly. A genuine competing offer strengthens any negotiation, but only raise it if you would actually accept it. Using a fabricated offer as leverage tends to end either the negotiation or the employment relationship.
• Check the employer, not just the offer. Verified employee reviews reveal how a company treats its workforce when project pipelines thin or demand drops. A higher wage at a firm with a documented pattern of abrupt layoffs may not be the better total deal when you factor in earnings continuity.
• Act while the numbers are on your side. Leverage built on one strong month of JOLTS data can erode quickly if hiring stays weak through early 2027. Moving while openings are elevated is a materially different position than moving after they correct.

For HR and employers: what to prepare for

Anirban Basu at ABC left little ambiguity in his forward assessment of the construction labor market:

Reemerging worker shortages will put upward pressure on labor costs, a dynamic that will exacerbate the effects of high borrowing costs and ongoing materials price escalation. - Anirban Basu, Associated Builders and Contractors

More than 1 in 4 contractors expect their profit margins to contract over the next six months, according to ABC's Construction Confidence Index, and Basu expects that share to rise if shortages intensify into early 2027. Hospitality employers face a parallel version of the same problem: when quits jump by 197,000 in a single month, the recruitment and onboarding cycle resets faster, and those costs accumulate. SHRM's research consistently places the cost of replacing a frontline employee at between 50% and 200% of annual salary, depending on the role; at current churn rates in accommodation and food services, that is not a theoretical risk.

• Review pay bands now, not at the annual cycle. Waiting for a resignation letter before adjusting wages puts you in the weakest possible negotiating position. Mid-cycle market adjustments are operationally disruptive but less costly than replacement.
• Track quits by team and by tenure. A rising exit rate among experienced staff is an earlier warning indicator than your vacancy count. Tenure-weighted turnover data gives HR leadership a more precise picture of where the institutional knowledge risk is concentrated.
• Make non-pay terms visible in job postings and stay conversations. Predictable scheduling, documented progression routes, paid skills training, and tool or equipment allowances are terms candidates now compare openly across employers. Employers who articulate these clearly in postings gain an edge in the application funnel.
• Hold proactive stay conversations. Prioritize employees in roles where a replacement would take three months or more to reach full productivity. A structured stay conversation is not a promise of a raise; it is a signal that the employer is paying attention, and that signal reduces quit probability on its own.
• Budget labor costs alongside other cost pressures. Basu explicitly ties wage pressure to borrowing costs and materials price escalation. Financial forecasts that treat these as separate line items will underestimate total project cost risk. The DOL's Employment Cost Index, published quarterly by BLS, provides the most credible benchmark for projecting construction and service-sector wage trajectories.

A split market, not a booming one

The September BLS JOLTS data does not describe a hot jobs market. It describes a split one: weak net hiring at only 29,000 nonfarm payroll additions, a layoff rate at a multi-year low, and workers in short-supply sectors quietly testing their options with a confidence that the data supports. For employees in construction and hospitality, the numbers provide concrete backing for a direct, specific conversation about pay, hours, or terms. For HR teams and operations leaders in those same sectors, the same data argues for acting before the resignations arrive rather than reacting after they do. The ABC Construction Confidence Index and the BLS Employment Cost Index are the two data sources most worth monitoring through the first quarter of 2027 to gauge whether this leverage window widens or closes.