ATO bracket creep and HECS fears: one in five workers skips the pay rise

08/03/2026
9 min
ATO bracket creep and HECS fears: one in five workers skips the pay rise

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One in five Australian workers is passing on a pay rise before they even ask for one. Research by Money.com.au, reported by HCA Magazine, found that 20% of Australians are not requesting higher pay, citing concerns that a larger salary will be swallowed by tax, HECS-HELP repayments, or the loss of government benefits before any extra money actually reaches them. It is a financially costly instinct, and in most cases it is built on a misreading of how the Australian tax system works. If you recognise yourself in that statistic, read this before your next review conversation.

The Fair Work Commission (FWC) sets national minimum wage increases each year, and the ABS Wage Price Index has tracked real wage movement across industries. Neither of those mechanisms help you if you quietly take yourself out of the conversation before it starts. The gap between what workers fear and what they would actually pocket is, in most cases, far smaller than the anxiety suggests.

Why so many workers are stalling on their own raise

The concern is concrete and consistent across the Money.com.au sample. Half of the workers who avoid asking for a rise say the prospect of moving into a higher tax bracket makes the extra income feel not worth pursuing. A further 23% are worried about triggering a higher HECS-HELP repayment rate. Another 17% fear losing government concessions or rebates, and 9% are specifically concerned that a higher income would reduce their childcare subsidy or Family Tax Benefit entitlements.

The pattern sharpens by generation. Nearly three in four Baby Boomers named income tax implications as their primary concern about a pay rise. That figure sits at 61% for Gen X workers, 42% for Millennials, and 26% for Gen Z. Older workers carrying more complex financial arrangements, particularly those managing super drawdown strategies or part-pension eligibility, have the most at stake with each threshold crossed. Even so, a quarter of the youngest cohort is already second-guessing a rise they have not even asked for yet.

On the employer side, the picture looks very different. A February 2026 Robert Half report found that 99% of Australian businesses are open to salary negotiations, and 97% are prepared to offer alternative benefits when a salary request cannot be met in full. That figure alone should reframe the conversation: the barrier to asking is almost never the employer. It is the worker's own risk calculation, often based on assumptions about the tax system that do not hold up to scrutiny.

How marginal tax actually works, and why the bracket fear is mostly wrong

The most persistent and damaging misconception is straightforward: many workers believe that crossing into a higher Australian Taxation Office (ATO) income bracket means their entire salary is taxed at the new, higher rate. It is not. Under Australia's progressive income tax structure, only the dollars above the bracket threshold are assessed at the marginal rate. Every dollar earned below that threshold continues to be taxed at the same rate as before.

Sean Callery, head of insights at Money.com.au, made the mechanics plain:

"It's important to remember, though, that if you move into a higher tax bracket, only the portion of your income above the threshold is taxed at the higher rate. Your other income below the threshold is still taxed at the lower rates."

This is not a loophole or an edge case. It is the fundamental design of Australia's income tax schedule, administered by the ATO under the Income Tax Assessment Act 1997. A pay rise almost always leaves more money in your account, not less. The real question is how much more, once HECS-HELP obligations, the 12% Super Guarantee (SG) contribution, and any means-tested benefit thresholds are factored in. That is a calculation, not a verdict, and calculations can be done.

The numbers to run before you decline a rise

Before walking away from a rise, or simply not raising the subject at all, put five figures on paper. If you cannot confidently answer all five, you are making a career-affecting decision on a guess.

  • Your current gross and net. What do you take home after PAYG withholding, the Medicare levy, and any HECS-HELP repayment? Check your most recent payslip and cross-reference against the ATO's current tax tables, not the ones you recall from a couple of years ago.
  • The proposed new gross. The full annual figure on the table, not an approximation.
  • The new net at that gross. Recalculate using the ATO's current income tax rates and thresholds for the 2025-26 income year. Rates shift; assumptions do not always keep up.
  • Any benefit you would lose, in dollar terms. Childcare Subsidy, Family Tax Benefit Part A or B, Health Care Card concessions. Give each a realistic annual value before deciding whether the rise outweighs it.
  • The net-net difference. New take-home minus the dollar value of any lost benefits. For the majority of workers, this figure is still solidly positive.

A salary calculator that models your ATO bracket, HECS-HELP repayment tier, and SG contribution in one place will save you an hour of spreadsheet work. If your situation involves multiple means-tested payments, a single session with a registered tax agent or a financial counsellor registered with the Australian Financial Complaints Authority (AFCA) typically pays for itself several times over.

The HECS-HELP question, properly worked through

Close to a quarter of workers avoiding a raise specifically name HECS-HELP as the concern. It is a legitimate thing to think through, but it rewards precision rather than avoidance.

Under the Higher Education Support Act 2003 (HESA), HECS-HELP repayments are calculated as a percentage of your repayment income once you cross the minimum repayment threshold, which the ATO adjusts each income year. That percentage rises in steps as income increases, so crossing a threshold does mean a larger compulsory repayment. Two points are worth keeping in mind before that becomes a reason to refuse a rise.

  • Repaying your HECS-HELP debt faster is not a financial penalty. It is an existing obligation being discharged sooner. Once the debt is cleared, the repayment percentage that was coming out of your paycheque stays in your pocket permanently.
  • The repayment rate applies to your whole repayment income once a threshold is passed, which is why a step-up can feel sharp on paper. In practice, it is a percentage of income, not a confiscation. The remainder of the rise still arrives with you.

The scenario in which a pay rise genuinely leaves you worse off after HECS-HELP is very narrow: typically a modest rise that just nudges you across a repayment band. If that is your exact situation, the better move is to negotiate the size of the rise so it clears the threshold with meaningful headroom, rather than refusing the increase altogether.

When cash genuinely is the wrong lever, and what to ask for instead

There are real cases where extra cash income creates complications that outweigh the benefit, at least in the short term. If you sit at the edge of a Childcare Subsidy income tier or a Family Tax Benefit cut-out point, a small salary increase can be net-negative on a careful twelve-month calculation. In those situations, the answer is rarely to refuse a raise. It is to redirect the conversation.

Given that 97% of businesses in the Robert Half survey indicated willingness to offer alternatives when a salary request cannot be met in full, there is genuine room to ask for arrangements that improve your position without triggering the thresholds you are worried about.

  • Additional superannuation contributions above the compulsory SG rate. Amounts salary-sacrificed into super are taxed at the concessional rate of 15% inside the fund, rather than at your marginal rate, and do not count as assessable income for most means-tested government payments. This is a particularly efficient lever for workers in the 32.5% or 37% marginal brackets.
  • Extra annual leave or purchased leave. Additional leave is a form of compensation that carries real value, particularly where it reduces childcare or casual-care costs, without affecting your taxable income figure.
  • Formal flexibility arrangements. A compressed work week, guaranteed remote days, or a structured four-day arrangement can reduce commuting costs and out-of-pocket childcare spend, both of which have a direct effect on your actual financial position without lifting your gross income.
  • A professional development or training budget. Certifications, industry conferences, or study leave raise your future earning power without shifting your current tax position or means-tested benefit eligibility.
  • A performance bonus structured across two income years, timed so the payment falls in the year where it creates the least threshold exposure.

What Sean Callery's findings signal about financial literacy and wage bargaining

Callery's observations at Money.com.au go beyond personal finance advice. They point to a structural dynamic that the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) and employer bodies alike have reason to pay attention to: workers self-suppressing wage claims on grounds that may not survive basic arithmetic.

"A pay rise should be something to look forward to after continuing to add value in the workplace or in a business. But many Australians are worried the extra income won't translate into much more money in their pocket once a potentially higher marginal tax rate and other financial consequences are taken into account."

Callery also described the compounding effect of overlapping anxieties that ends up paralyzing workers at the negotiating table:

"Many households are also concerned about the flow-on effects of earning more, like higher HECS-HELP repayments, losing family benefits or becoming ineligible for government concessions. When you add those factors together, some workers start to question whether chasing a higher salary is actually worth it."

The point is not that the concern is irrational. It is that the concern is, in most cases, larger than the reality, and the reality is knowable. A payslip, an ATO tax table, and twenty minutes of honest arithmetic usually produce a different answer than the anxiety does.

The negotiation cost of never asking

There is a second financial cost that sits beneath the immediate tax question and rarely gets named directly: what deferring or refusing a pay rise does to the long-term trajectory of your income.

Pay rises compound. The salary you agree to today becomes the base your next employer benchmarks against, the figure your annual bonus is calculated on, and the income your 12% SG contributions build upon across the remainder of your working life. A rise deferred for a year or two is not a neutral pause. It is a permanent shift in the baseline. Across a full working life, the compounding gap between a worker who negotiates every eighteen to twenty-four months and one who quietly opts out can run into six figures of forgone income and superannuation.

The ABS Wage Price Index shows that real wages across the Australian workforce have faced sustained pressure in recent years. Against that backdrop, taking yourself out of a negotiation that 99% of employers are willing to have is a particularly costly form of caution. The FWC sets the floor; it is the individual conversation that determines where above that floor you actually land.

A three-question check before your next review

Before you sit down for a performance or salary review, run through three questions. They take less time than the anxiety does.

  • Do I actually know my net-net position? If you have not calculated your take-home after ATO PAYG withholding, your HECS-HELP repayment rate, and any benefit reduction, you are deciding on a feeling rather than a figure.
  • Is a specific benefit cliff the real issue, or is it general financial anxiety? A threshold cliff is concrete and nameable: you can identify the payment, the income cut-out point, and the dollar amount at stake. If you cannot name all three, you are responding to anxiety, not to policy.
  • What is my non-cash Plan B? Additional super contributions, extra leave, formal flexibility, a professional development budget. Walk into the conversation with at least two alternatives you would genuinely accept, in case a direct salary lift creates complications you cannot resolve in the short term.

Australia's income tax system, for all its complexity and the threshold effects that HECS-HELP and means-tested payments introduce, is not designed to leave you worse off for earning more. It is designed to take a share of the extra. Declining to ask, on the assumption that the entire gain disappears, is the one decision that guarantees you end up with less than you could have had.

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